Risk Mitigation Strategy Builder

Risk Pathway

1. Corruption in mission forces

Requests to employ particular individuals, often while circumventing official recruitment processes

Recruitment of individuals who manifestly do not meet job requirements

Prevalence of recruits from one ethnic or social group

Poor documentation for travel and other expenses (could indicate diversion of allowances)

Reports of bribery in recruitment

Risk Pathway

2. Relations with host nation stakeholders

Impunity, often stemming from political interference in criminal investigations/refusal to prosecute those accused of corruption or other crimes. Even with overwhelming evidence, charges may be dropped, evidence lost, or judges bribed or coerced. Sentences may be inappropriately light or forms of escape, medical release, or house arrest may be offered in lieu of spending time in jail.

Credible and repeated allegations of officials’ involvement with smuggling rings and corrupt networks

‘Recycling’ of corrupt officials: those accused of gross injustice are moved to new jobs or fired, only to reappear a few months later in a different capacity

Multiple members of the same network – family, tribe, family, tribe, ethnic, social or economic group– in positions of power

Reports of monopolisation of an economic area or industry by a particular actor or network

A highly politicised civil service where hiring and promotion decisions are based on nepotism and patronage

Apparent collusion between government and criminal organisations

Capture of defence and security forces by different factions, with a view to use soldiers to protect factional interests

Allegations of vote rigging and/or improper influence on elections

Government procurement awards to officials’ family members

Weak legal framework and limited criminalisation of corruption

Inadequate enforcement systems, including the police and judiciary

Resistance to judicial reform

Poor perception of government among host nation population

Low scores on corruption- and governance-related indices (Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index and Global Corruption Barometer; the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators)

Public perception polls indicating corruption as a key issue and/or high levels of bribery

Anti-corruption protests

Religious leaders and community organisations speaking out about corruption

Media reports and social media discussion of corruption

Repression of journalists, especially those investigating corruption

Suppression of civil society organisations, especially those working on anti-corruption issues. This can be done through laws that can cut off their freedom of manoeuvre and their resources, or through interference with their leadership.

Donors expressing concerns and introducing stringent anti-corruption standards in their programming

Risk Pathway

3. Partnering with host nation defence and security forces (HNDSF)

Inability to account for weapons and other items

Donated equipment for sale on the black market or online

Donor or host nation equipment in the adversary's hands

Reports of inadequate resource distribution

Low levels of ammunition and other resources, especially for frontline troops

Repeated requests for assistance, often regarding the same items

Security of storage facilities compromised

Poor or incomplete audits

Risk Pathway

4. Corruption in sustainment and contracting

Refusal to divulge the identity of beneficial owners and/or company officers, i.e. those who draw benefits from companies and those who direct companies' actions.

Shareholders, owners or company officers who are, or have recently been, public officials

History of allegations and investigations against companies or individuals

History of companies or individuals being suspended or debarred by governments or international institutions

Overcharging for services - rates above reasonable/market rates

Reports of bribery and extortion

High-end lifestyles (among contractor and mission officers) that cannot be attributed to salaries or other legitimate means

Requests for payments in cash or other untraceable instruments

Requests for payments to offshore companies

Requests for advance payments with no subsequent accounting for expenditure

Requests for additional payments or contract modification after the bidding process is concluded (it could indicate that the initial offer was under-valued in order to influence the bidding process)

Poor or no documentation for travel and other expenses

Use of ‘general purpose’ or ‘miscellaneous’ accounts/line items in budgets

Use of shell companies (no employees, no offices, little or no work history) and/or subcontractors whose role is unclear

Discrepancies between the details contained in bids and specifications in the final contract

Company refusal to agree to audits and/or adopt compliance measures

Contractor willingness to violate or evade laws

Attempts to explain misconduct by referring to ‘customs’ or ‘the way it is done’

Product substitution: products of lower quality than foreseen are delivered

One person or group becoming the key contractor and intelligence source at the same time

One person or group acting as jobs gatekeeper for large communities

Risk Pathway

5. Assistance to civil power

Reports of theft and extortion along humanitarian aid supply lines

Reports of supplies not making their way to beneficiaries

Unexplained wealth among contractors

False accounting and financial reports

Reluctance to accept audit and verification measures

Black market trade in humanitarian assistance items

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Risk Mitigation Strategy Builder

1. Corruption in mission forces

2. Relations with host nation stakeholders

3. Partnering with host nation defence and security forces (HNDSF)

4. Corruption in sustainment and contracting

5. Assistance to civil power

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